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Bomb Iran? U.S. Requests Bunker-Buster Bombs

Oct 26, 2007
from ABC News:

Bomb Iran? U.S. Requests Bunker-Buster Bombs

White House Bomber Request Leaves Some Wondering if U.S. Is Preparing Action in Iran


By JONATHAN KARL

Oct. 24, 2007 —

Tucked inside the White House's $196 billion emergency funding request for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is an item that has some people wondering whether the administration is preparing for military action against Iran.

The item: $88 million to modify B-2 stealth bombers so they can carry a newly developed 30,000-pound bomb called the massive ordnance penetrator, or, in military-speak, the MOP.

The MOP is the the military's largest conventional bomb, a super "bunker-buster" capable of destroying hardened targets deep underground. The one-line explanation for the request said it is in response to "an urgent operational need from theater commanders."

What urgent need? The Pentagon referred questions on this to Central Command.

ABC News called CENTCOM to ask what the "urgent operational need" is. CENTCOM spokesman Maj. Todd White said he would look into it, but, so far, no answer.

There doesn't appear to be any potential targets for a bomb like that in Iraq. It could potentially be used on Taliban or al Qaeda hideouts in the caves along the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, but there would be no need to use a stealth bomber there.

So where would the military use a stealth bomber armed with a 30,000-pound bomb like this? Defense analysts say the most likely target for this bomb would be Iran's flagship nuclear facility in Natanz, which is both heavily fortified and deeply buried.

"You'd use it on Natanz," said John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org. "And you'd use it on a stealth bomber because you want it to be a surprise. And you put in an emergency funding request because you want to bomb quickly."

"It's kind of strange," Pike said. "It sends a signal that you are preparing to bomb Iran, and if you were actually going to bomb Iran I wouldn't think you would want to announce it like that."

The MOP is a massive bomb -- 20 feet long and encased in 3.5 inch thick high-performance steel. It is designed to penetrate up to 200 feet underground before exploding.

The bomb was developed by Northrop Grumman and Boeing for the Pentagon's Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

In an interview earlier this year with Air Force Times, Bob Hastie, the manager of the MOP program explained its purpose: "We have a mission to defeat ... hard and deeply buried targets where our adversary would have the support structure for WMD-type systems."

Copyright © 2007 ABC News Internet Ventures

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Oil and social gains

Oil and social gains
WHY U.S. IS TARGETING IRAN

By Sara Flounders
StopWarOnIran.org

“The forces opposing Washington’s policy of endless war--whether waged through sanctions, coups, invasions, bombings or sabotage--should stand with Iran, recognize its accomplishments, defend its gains and oppose imperialism’s efforts to re-colonize the country.”

Why is Iran increasingly a target of U.S. threats? Who in Iran will be affected if the Pentagon implements plans, already drawn up, to strike more than 10,000 targets in the first hours of a U.S. air barrage on Iran?

What changes in policy is Washington demanding of the Iranian government?

In the face of the debacle U.S. imperialism is facing in Iraq, U.S. threats against Iran are discussed daily. This is not a secret operation. They can't be considered idle threats.

Two aircraft carriers--USS Eisenhower and USS Stennis--are still off the coast of Iran, each one accompanied by a carrier strike group containing Hornet and Superhornet fighter-bombers, electronic warfare aircraft, anti-submarine and refueler planes, and airborne command-and-control planes. Six guided-missile destroyers are also part of the armada.

Besides this vast array of firepower, the Pentagon has bases throughout the Middle East able to attack Iran with cruise missiles and hundreds of warplanes.

In fact, the U.S. is already engaged in a war on Iran. Ever-tightening sanctions, from both the U.S. and U.N., restrict trade and the ordering of equipment, spare parts and supplies.

Seymour Hersh reported in the New Yorker magazine a year ago that U.S. special operations forces were already operating inside Iran in preparation for a possible attack. U.S.-backed covert operatives had entered Iran to organize sabotage, car bombings, kidnappings and attacks on civilians, to collect targeting data and to foment anti-government ethnic-minority groups.

News articles have reported in recent months that the Pentagon has drawn up plans for a military blitz that would strike 10,000 targets in the first day of attacks. The aim is to destroy not just military targets but also airports, rail lines, highways, bridges, ports, communication centers, power grids, industrial centers, hospitals and public buildings.

It is important to understand internal developments in Iran today in order to understand why this country is the focus of such continued hatred by U.S. corporate power.

Every leading U.S. political figure has weighed in on the issue, from George W. Bush, who has the power to order strikes, to Hillary Clinton, who has made her support for an attack on Iran clear, to John McCain, who answered a reporter's question on policy toward Iran by chanting "Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran" to the tune of the Beach Boys' song, "Barbara Ann." The media--from the New York Times to the Washington Post to banner headlines in the tabloid press to right-wing radio talk shows--are playing a role in preparing the public for an attack.

The significance of oil production and oil reserves in Iran is well known. Every news article, analysis or politician's threat makes mention of Iran’s oil. But the impact of Iran’s nationalization of its oil resources is not well known.

The corporate owners in the U.S. want to keep it a secret from the people here. They use all the power of their media to demonize the Iranian leadership and caricature and ridicule the entire population, their culture and religion.

What’s been achieved?

The focus of media coverage here is to describe Iran as medieval, backward and feudal while somehow becoming a nuclear power.

It is never mentioned that more than half the university students in Iran are women, or that more than a third of the doctors, 60 percent of civil servants and 80 percent of all teachers in Iran are women. At the time of the 1979 Iranian Revolution, 90 percent of rural women were illiterate; in towns the figure was over 45 percent.

Also ignored is the stunning achievement of full literacy for Iranian youth.

Even the World Bank, now headed by Bush's neocon appointee Paul Wolfowitz, in its development report on countries admits that Iran has exceeded the social gains of other countries in the Middle East.

According to that report, Iran has made the most progress in eliminating gender disparities in education. Large numbers of increasingly well-educated women have entered the work force.

Iran’s comprehensive social protection system includes the highest level of pensions, disability insurance, job training programs, unemployment insurance and disaster-relief programs. National subsidies make basic food, housing and energy affordable to all.

An extensive national network going from primary health and preventive care to sophisticated hospital care covers the entire population, both urban and rural. More than 16,000 "health houses" are the cornerstone of the health care system. Using simple technology, they provide vaccines, preventive care, care for respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, family planning and contraceptive information, and pre-natal care. And they monitor children’s nutrition and general health.

Since 1990, Iran nearly halved the infant mortality rate and increased life expectancy by 10 years.

Iran sets record in family planning

A national family planning program, delivered through the primary health care facilities and accompanied by a dramatic increase in contraceptive use, which is approved by Islamic law, has led to a world record demographic change in family size and maternal and child health. All forms of contraception are now available for free.

In addition promoting women’s education and employment, while extending social security and retirement benefits, has alleviated the pressure to have many children to protect security as parents grow older. The fertility rate between 1976 and 2000 declined from 8.1 births per woman to 2.4 births in rural areas and 1.8 births in urban areas.

These social programs, which cover the entire population of almost 70 million people, should be compared to conditions in countries in the region that remain under U.S. military and economic domination.

In Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, only a tiny part of the population has benefited from the vast profits generated by oil and gas resources. In each of these countries the bulk of the people are not even considered citizens. Millions are immigrant workers, usually the overwhelming majority of the population, who have no rights to any representation, participation or any social, health or educational programs or union protection.

Women in these countries face much more than religious restrictions on clothing. They are barred from jobs, equal education and the right to control their own bodies or their own funds. They cannot vote or even drive a car.

In Iraq, which before U.S. attacks began in 1991 had some of the best conditions in the region for women, plus a high level of education, health, nutrition and social services, the conditions of life have now deteriorated to the level of the very poorest countries in the world. Legislation passed by the U.S.-installed puppet government has stripped women of rights that were guaranteed earlier.

Revolution made it all possible

The social gains of millions of Iranians are based on the upsurge of the Iranian masses in the 1979 revolution. The overthrow of the U.S.-backed Shah and the Pahlavi dynasty broke the hold of U.S. corporate power in Iran.

The Iranian Revolution was not a socialist revolution. Bourgeois rights to own businesses, land, wealth and inheritance are still protected by law and by the state apparatus.

But the greatest source of wealth--Iran's oil and gas--was nationalized. Nationalization means the transfer of privately owned assets and operations into public ownership. The exploration, drilling, maintenance, transport, refining and shipping of oil and gas became the national property of the Iranian people. Formerly this entire process was controlled at every step by Western imperialists, particularly U.S. and British corporations.

Most of the administrators, executives, technicians and engineers who controlled the process used to be from the West. Through hundreds of thousands of contracts and sub-contracts, U.S. and British firms extracted a profit not just through the sale of oil on the world markets but at every step of its extraction and refining. The small portion of profit the Shah's government received, as in the Gulf States today, was spent on luxury items imported from Western corporations for the small ruling elite and on infrastructure and weapons systems purchased from U.S. military corporations, again at an enormous profit.

The 1979 Iranian revolution, even though it brought a religious group to power, was a profoundly radical and anti-imperialist revolution. Demonstrations of millions openly confronted the brutally repressive police apparatus called the Savak, who protected the small handful of corrupt U.S. collaborators. Religious fervor, demands for social justice and militant anti-imperialism were bound together in opposition to the U.S.-imposed Shah and the Pahlavi royal family, which was hated for its program of a glitzy modernization of the urban infrastructure alongside the growing impoverishment of both urban and rural workers, farmers and much of the middle class.

All classes of society were profoundly shaken as millions of revolutionary workers took to the streets. This was reflected not only in laws passed in Parliament but in the Iranian constitution itself. The constitution states that the government is required to provide every citizen with access to social security for retirement, unemployment, old age, disability, accidents, health and medical treatment--out of public revenue.

Prior to the revolution Iran had a shortage of medical staff and of trained personnel of every kind. During the upheaval of the revolution and the years of the Iran-Iraq war, many physicians, scientific and skilled personnel emigrated.

Having broken free of U.S. corporate domination and control of its resources, Iran was able to develop education, industry and infrastructure with unprecedented speed. By 2004 the number of university students had increased by six times over 1979. There are currently 2.2 million college students. The largest and most prestigious programs encompass 54 state universities and 42 state medical schools where tuition, room and board are totally free. In addition, 289 major private universities also receive substantial funding.

Millions of scientists, engineers, technicians, administrators, military officers, teachers, civil servants and doctors have been trained.

Today Iran boasts modern cities, a large auto industry, and miles of new roads, railroads and subways. Currently 55 Iranian pharmaceutical companies produce 96 percent of the medicines on the market in Iran. This allows a national insurance system to reimburse drug expenses.

Soon to become operational is the largest pharmaceutical complex in southwest Asia, which will produce compound drugs, making Iran a pioneer in biotechnology.

Years of U.S. sanctions and pressure on international financial institutions have had an unexpected result: Iran is free of the crippling debt that has strangled so many developing countries. According to World Bank figures, Iran’s external debt is one of the lowest for its size: $11.9 billion, or 8.8 percent of the GDP. From the point of view of the imperialist world bankers, this means the loss of many billions each year in interest payments to them.

Different approaches

Since 1979 there have been deep struggles inside Iran over how to deal with the unrelenting pressure of the imperialist powers. There are differing approaches on developments plans and who is favored or benefits most from these plans. But all of the present forces are committed to maintaining Iran's control of its resources.

Iran is not a monolithic state. No state is or could be. There are contending groups even within the Muslim clergy that reflect different economic interests and class forces. This is true also in the Iranian Parliament and among various political parties and leaders.

Under President Mohammed Khatami, from 1997 to 2005, a "Reform Movement" eased religious and social restrictions. But it also allowed the introduction of neo-liberal economic policies, structural reforms and the de-nationalizing or privatizing of some social programs along with the cutting of subsidies. More joint ventures were initiated with European and Japanese capital. Programs that benefited the "private sector" or the wealthy and the middle class grew. This was the core of Khatami’s base.

The current leader, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's first non-cleric president in 24 years, was elected in 2005 in a landslide victory after promising to extend social security and pensions, improve the subsidies for food and housing, deal with rising unemployment and guarantee a monthly stipend.

The Iranian people are determined to protect the substantial gains they have made since the revolution. They are not interested in any effort that turns the clock back.

A Wall Street Journal Commentary by Francis Fukuyama on Feb. 1 was unusually frank in explaining the growing problem faced by U.S. corporate power on a global scale:

“What is it that leaders like Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah and Venezuela's Hugo Chavez have in common that vastly increases their local appeal? A foreign policy built around anti-Americanism is, of course, a core component. But what has allowed them to win elections and build support in their societies is less their foreign-policy stances than their ability to promise, and to a certain extent deliver on, social policy--things like education, health and other social services, particularly for the poor….

“The U.S. and the political groups that it tends to support around the world, by contrast, have relatively little to offer in this regard.”

Past and new threats

Iran's program for nuclear power was actually initiated by the U.S. when the Shah held dictatorial power. Nuclear energy is an important part of modern industrial development. It is important in science, medicine and research. Only after the overthrow of the Shah was Iran’s continued development of the same program branded a threat by Washington.

The U.S. government has made every effort to sabotage all Iranian infrastructure and industrial development, not only nuclear energy. Modern technology--from elevators to cars, ships, jet aircraft and oil refineries--needs constant upkeep. Parts for the re-supply and maintenance of equipment the Iranians had purchased over decades from U.S. corporations were halted.

The most onerous sanctions were imposed in 1995 during the Clinton administration.

The Iranian people, despite many different political currents, are united in their determination not to lose their national sovereignty again. Washington's past use of sanctions, economic sabotage, political destabilization and regime change is well remembered in Iran today.

Sanctions, the freezing of assets and an embargo on the export of Iranian oil and all trade with Iran were first imposed in March 1951, after Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh nationalized the Anglo-Iranian Oil Co. Iran was the first country in the Middle East to take the bold step of reclaiming its national wealth in the post-colonial era.

In 1953 using internal destabilization and massive external pressure, the CIA orchestrated the overthrow of Mossadegh's popularly elected government and placed the Shah on the Peacock Throne. Oil was back under the control of the U.S. and Britain, and 26 years of brutal repression followed.

Ever since the 1979 revolution and the decisive overthrow of the U.S.-supported military dictatorship, Iran has had not a moment of peace from the Pentagon or Wall Street.

As Iran continues to grow and develop, U.S. imperialism is becoming increasingly desperate to reverse this revolutionary process, whether through sanctions, sabotage or bombing. But today it faces a population that is stronger, more conscious and more skilled. On a world scale U.S. imperialism is more isolated. Its hated occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan has left it overextended.

But the Pentagon is still capable of massive destruction. Its bases surround Iran and it has sent an armada of ships to the Gulf. U.S. government threats against Iran today must be taken as seriously as their devastating occupation of Iraq.

The forces opposing Washington’s policy of endless war--whether waged through sanctions, coups, invasions, bombings or sabotage--should stand with Iran, recognize its accomplishments, defend its gains and oppose imperialism’s efforts to re-colonize the country.



Sources of information about Iran's social development include: "Iran’s Family Planning Program: Responding to a Nation’s Needs," by Farzaneh Roudi-Fahimi, Population Reference Bureau, Washington, D.C., June 2002; "Tehran University Official Describes Iran Health Care System to Harvard School of Public Health," HSPH NOW, Jan. 24, 2003; World Bank.org--Iran--Country Brief; UNICEF--Info by Country; Food & Agriculture Organization of UN--Nutrition--Country Profiles; "Biggest Pharmaceutical Plant to Open Soon," Iran Daily, Feb. 4, 2007.

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US imposes harsh new sanctions against Iran

By Matthew Moore
Last Updated: 5:01pm BST 25/10/2007

The US has announced sweeping economic sanctions against Iran designed to punish the regime for its nuclear programme and support for terrorists.

  • Analysis: Iran reaching the point of no return
  • Iran divided by nuclear policy power struggle
  • News Review: Inside the real Iran
  • The measures are the harshest imposed on Teheran since 1979, and mark a new phase in the international campaign against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's regime.

     Henry Paulson. and Condoleezza Rice
    Henry Paulson, US Treasury Secretary, and Condoleezza Rice, US Secretary of State, announce the sanctions

    The British Government immediately gave its backing to the US action, and pledged to lead the campaign for new EU and UN sanctions.

    Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, said the package represented "a comprehensive policy to confront the threatening behaviour of the Iranians".

    Today's announcement comes after weeks of increasingly pugnacious exchanges between Washington and Teheran. Earlier this month President George W Bush warned of "World War Three" unless Iran's nuclear ambitions were tackled.

    Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Defence Ministry and a number of banks and companies linked to the ruling regime will be hit by the measures, which effectively cut them off from the international banking system. full article

    US announces sanctions against Iran's Revolutionary Guards

    Escalating tensions over Iran's nuclear programs culminate in an 'unprecedented package' of economic constraints.

    US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson announced Thursday morning the harshest set of sanctions against Iran since that country's 1979 revolution, according to the Associated Press.

    In the broadest U.S. unilateral penalties on Iran since the takeover ofthe U.S. Embassy in 1979, the administration slapped sanctions onIran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, a main unit of its defense ministry,three of its largest banks and eight people that it said are engaged inmissile trade and back extremist groups throughout the Middle East.

    The sanctions target 25 Iranian entities, including individuals and companies owned or controlled by the Revolutionary Guard that play a major role in Iran’s domestic economy and international trade. They are the first of their type taken by the United States specifically against the armed forces of another government

    Britain's Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, echoed the US's earlier calls for sanctions on the Iranian government by the United Nations (UN), saying it, too, would push for further sanctions against Iran, NewsDay reports. The Bush administration conceded last month to Chinese and Russian demands that the UN Security Council wait until November before leveling more sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

    full article

    U.S. Sanctions On Iran Take Crisis To New Level

    U.S. Sanctions On Iran Take Crisis To New Level

    By Jeffrey Donovan

    Iran -- Elite Revolutionary Guards march during an annual military parade to mark Iran's eight-year war with Iraq in Tehran, 22Sep2007
    Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps
    (AFP)
    October 25, 2007 (RFE/RL) -- With one fell swoop of the U.S. government’s pen, Washington has hit Iran with some of the strongest U.S. unilateral sanctions since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, singling out Iran’s Defense Ministry, Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), and its elite Quds Force in a move that is likely to send the crisis over Tehran’s nuclear program to a new level of tension and uncertainty.



    U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson announced the much-anticipated move at a news conference in Washington today. They said the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush had designated the IRGC as a proliferator of weapons of mass destruction and the Quds Force as a supporter of terrorism. They said the steps aimed to punish Iran for supporting terrorism in Iraq and the Middle East, as well as for its missile sales and nuclear activities.

    Rice said Iran “continues to spurn our offer of open negotiations, instead threatening peace and security by pursuing nuclear technologies that can lead to a nuclear weapon, building dangerous ballistic missiles, supporting Shi'ite militants in Iraq, and terrorists in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories." She added that Washington remains open to a “diplomatic solution.”

    Financial Pressure

    The United States has long labeled Iran as a state supporter of terrorism. But the latest designations appear to be the first ever taken by Washington against a branch of the armed forces of a sovereign nation. The sanctions themselves will target more than 20 Iranian entities, including individuals and firms tied to the IRGC, so that they won’t be able to work within the U.S. banking system. The U.S. Treasury previously had excluded two of Iran’s biggest banks from conducting transactions in U.S. dollars. The new sanctions also will impact the international banking community, some of whose members have also taken steps to financially isolate Iran.

    In its role as protector of the revolution, the IRGC has morphed into a huge military and economic conglomerate, heavily involved in Iran’s oil industry, construction, and other key sectors, with personnel in all the major state organizations.

    One effect of the moves may be to raise pressure on European countries to take unilateral sanctions of their own against Iran, which would build on recent steps in Germany, for example, to scale back the export credit guarantees it issues for trade with Iran. Britain’s biggest bank, HSBC, said no dollar transactions are being conducted for Iranian clients and that its business links with Tehran are now minimal.

    But what the moves might portend more generally -- whether they might hinder or hasten military conflict -- is set to remain at the center of a growing international debate over the coming weeks.

    Paulson characterized the new sanctions as a logical step in a series of punitive measures taken recently by the international community to prevent Iran from mastering the techniques of uranium enrichment -- a key step in bomb-making. Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful and within its international rights, but the United States and other Western nations are convinced that it masks a secret drive to develop nuclear weapons.

    "Iran exploits its global financial ties to pursue nuclear capabilities, develop ballistic missiles, and fund terrorism,” Paulson said, adding that IRGC economic activities are so extensive that it is hard to know with whom one is doing business in Iran. “Today, we are taking additional steps to combat Iran's dangerous conduct and to engage financial institutions worldwide to make the most informed decisions about those with whom they choose to do business."

    A Military-Industrial Conglomerate

    The IRGC was founded after the 1979 revolution to protect the new Islamic establishment and prevent a military coup. Today, in its role as protector of the revolution, the IRGC has morphed into a huge military and economic conglomerate, with personnel in all the major state organizations. It is also heavily involved in Iran’s oil industry, construction, and other key sectors.

    It also boasts its own military units with ground forces, navy, air force, intelligence, and special forces. The Quds Force is alleged to train and finance Hizballah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Palestinian territories, and Shi’ite militias in Iraq. Many veterans of the organization play a prominent role in government, including President Mahmud Ahmadinejad.

    Rasool Nasifi, a Washington-based expert on Iran who has researched the IRGC, believes the new sanctions will be a blow to the organization’s status, prestige, and economic activities.

    “The movement of IRGC members abroad would become very, very hard -- especially in neighboring countries. They could easily be detained as terrorists,” Nasifi told Radio Farda recently. “Secondly, because it is a large conglomerate with a tremendous amount of assets and is involved in business, it would not be able to do business with Afghanistan, with Iraq, with neighboring countries; and that's going to be another major issue. Thirdly, if you look at the fact that a large organization like that is put on the [U.S.] list of terrorist organizations and if Interpol accepts that, then it's going to be a major issue for the IRGC, as a legitimate Iranian institution.”

    Others, however, are more skeptical of U.S. motives.

    Scott Ritter, a former United Nations weapons inspector in Iraq during the 1990s, was a critic of the Bush administration’s pre-war claims about Baghdad’s alleged threat. Ritter now believes that the new moves give Bush a freer hand to eventually take military action against Iran. “It frees the president up to strike the IRGC, and in doing so, to expand the strikes to include the nuclear infrastructure and other forces,” Ritter told RFE/RL in an interview conducted prior to today’s announcement. “Then, the president can claim that he’s not waging war against Iran but only those rogue elements inside Iran.”

    In an interview with RFE/RL, Stuart Levey, who has led the Iran sanctions efforts as undersecretary for terrorism at the U.S. Treasury, flatly rejected that view. “We take action based on the evidence, not to somehow lay a pretextual groundwork for anything else,” Levey said at RFE/RL’s Washington headquarters on October 16.

    The Iraq Connection

    And what is the evidence? The U.S. military in Iraq has repeatedly accused elements connected to the IRGC of training and equipping Shi’ite militia forces in southern Iraq and elsewhere in that country. In particular, the accusations have focused on alleged Quds Forces assistance in training and equipping Shi’ite militias in the fabrication and battlefield use of Explosively Formed Projectiles or EFPs, which rip through tanks and armored cars and reportedly are responsible for most U.S. troop fatalities in Iraq this year.

    Most analysts don’t disagree that Shi’ite militants in Iraq have support from within Iran. Rather, the question is more about where that support may be coming from -- whether it can be clearly traced to the Quds Forces -- an organization controlled directly by Iran’s senior political leadership, and which reportedly oversees the country’s nuclear program -- or instead perhaps originates in “rogue elements” tied to the IRGC. Critics say the distinction is vital because it could mean the difference between eventual limited military action aimed at specific targets or a much broader attack perhaps aimed at regime change in Iran.

    Speaking on September 27 in Baghdad, U.S. Brigadier General Kevin Bergner said it’s clear who supports the so-called “special groups” -- the splinter Shi’ite militias blamed for many attacks on U.S. forces. The "Quds Force, along with Hizballah instructors, train approximately 20 to 60 Iraqis at a time [in Iran], sending them back to Iraq organized into these special groups.” Bergner said. “They were being taught how to use EFPs, mortars, rockets, as well as intelligence, sniper, and kidnapping operations."

    Michael Knights, a British analyst who has spent months studying the Shi’ite special groups in Iraq and their ties to Iran, believes IRGC support for them is obvious. He also believes drawing a fine distinction over whether that support is from Quds or the IRGC in general is beside the point. But he says the Bush administration’s pre-Iraq intelligence record is now coloring perceptions of U.S. policy toward Iran.

    “The understanding we have of the Iranian-backed special groups is of an order of magnitude or more beyond what we understood about the internal workings of the [Iraqi] Ba’athist regime,” said Knights, who is the director of risk analysis and assessment at the Olive Group. “But no matter how much evidence you tend to adduce, you hit the credibility barrier. So that’s the ultimate irony, which is that when you didn’t know anything you were believed and wrong, and when you do know quite a lot, you are doubted, even though you are right.”

    Shifting Targets - The Administration’s plan for Iran.

    Oct 21, 2007
    by Seymour M. Hersh October 8, 2007

    In a series of public statements in recent months, President Bush and members of his Administration have redefined the war in Iraq, to an increasing degree, as a strategic battle between the United States and Iran. “Shia extremists, backed by Iran, are training Iraqis to carry out attacks on our forces and the Iraqi people,” Bush told the national convention of the American Legion in August. “The attacks on our bases and our troops by Iranian-supplied munitions have increased. . . . The Iranian regime must halt these actions. And, until it does, I will take actions necessary to protect our troops.” He then concluded, to applause, “I have authorized our military commanders in Iraq to confront Tehran’s murderous activities.”

    The President’s position, and its corollary—that, if many of America’s problems in Iraq are the responsibility of Tehran, then the solution to them is to confront the Iranians—have taken firm hold in the Administration. This summer, the White House, pushed by the office of Vice-President Dick Cheney, requested that the Joint Chiefs of Staff redraw long-standing plans for a possible attack on Iran, according to former officials and government consultants. The focus of the plans had been a broad bombing attack, with targets including Iran’s known and suspected nuclear facilities and other military and infrastructure sites. Now the emphasis is on “surgical” strikes on Revolutionary Guard Corps facilities in Tehran and elsewhere, which, the Administration claims, have been the source of attacks on Americans in Iraq. What had been presented primarily as a counter-proliferation mission has been reconceived as counterterrorism. full article

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    May 12 Forum : Stopping the War Against Iran

    May 12, 2007
    A forum:
    Stopping the War Against Iran
    What’s behind the U.S. drive for “regime change” in Iran?


    Presented by the American-Iranian Friendship Committee (AIFC) & Stop War on Iran Campaign.

    Saturday
    May12
    6:30 pm
    Judson Memorial Church Assembly Hall

    239 Thompson St.
    (Washington Sq. Park South & Thompson)
    in Manhattan

    Join us for a forum and discussion on the growing threats and ongoing attacks by the U.S. against the people of Iran.

    Why has the U.S. targeted Iran for “regime change?”

    Why is the U.S. backing terrorist attacks inside Iran, including kidnappings, assassinations, and car bombings?

    What’s behind the massive U.S. military buildup in the Gulf, including 2 aircraft carrier groups and hundreds of attack aircraft?

    How is the demonization of the people of Iran and their democratically-elected President part of the Bush Administration’s drive to war?

    What can you do to help the campaign to stop a new war in the Middle East?

    Speakers will include:
    • Ramsey Clark, former US Attorney General
    • Larry Holmes, Troops Out Now Coalition
    • Nada Khader, WESPAC Foundation
    • Kazem Azin, American-Iranian Friendship Committee
    • Larry Everest, World Can't Wait
    • Ardeshir Ommani, American-Iranian Friendship Committee
    • Sara Flounders, International Action Center

    for more information, call 212-633-6646 or 914-273-8852 or see www.StopWaronIran.org or www.progressiveportals.com/aifc

    Endorsers include: Artists and Activists United for Peace, WESPAC Foundation, Iranian Society in New York, Campaign Against Sanctions and Military Intervention in Iran (CASMII), Harlem Tenants Council, Asia Pacific Action, Stonewall Warriors NY/NJ, Troops Out Now Coalition, International Action Center, FIST - Fight Imperialism Stand Together, Pakistan USA Freedom Forum, Jersey City Peace Movement, BAYAN USA, NJ Action 21, Adalah-NY: The Coalition for Justice in the Middle East, NoWar Westchester

    Warships, Warships Everywhere, and Many a Bomb to Drop - Persian Gulf Update

    May 4, 2007
    by Michael T. Klare; TomDispatch; May 04, 2007

    Looking down from the captain's deck some six stories high, the flight deck of the USS Nimitz is an impressive sight indeed: 80 sleek warplanes armed with bombs and missiles are poised for takeoff at any minute, day or night. The sight of these planes coming and going from that 1,100-foot-long flight deck is almost beyond description. I can attest to this, having sailed on the Nimitz 25 years ago as a reporter for Mother Jones magazine.

    Today, the Nimitz is rapidly approaching the Persian Gulf, where it will join two other U.S. aircraft carriers and the French carrier Charles De Gaulle in the largest concentration of naval firepower in the region since the launching of the U.S. invasion of Iraq four years ago.

    Why this concentration now? Officially, the Nimitz is on its way to the Gulf to replace the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, which is due to return to the United States for crew leave and ship maintenance after months on station. But the U.S. Central Command (Centcom), which exercises command authority over all U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf area, refuses to say when the Eisenhower will actually depart -- or even when the Nimitz will arrive.

    For a time, at least, the United States will have three carrier battle groups in the region. The USS John C. Stennis is the third. Each carrier is accompanied by a small flotilla of cruisers, destroyers, submarines, and support vessels, many equipped with Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles (TLAMs). Minimally, this gives modern meaning to the classic imperial term "gunboat diplomacy," which makes it all the stranger that the deployment of the Nimitz is covered in our media, if at all, as the most minor of news stories. And when the Nimitz sailed off into the Pacific last month on its way to the Gulf, it simply disappeared off media radar screens like some classic "lost patrol."

    Rest assured, unlike us, the Iranians have noticed. After all, with the arrival of the Nimitz battle group, the Bush administration will be -- for an unknown period of time -- in an optimal position to strike Iran with a punishing array of bombs and missiles should the President decide to carry out his oft-repeated threat to eliminate Iran's nuclear program through military action. "All options," as the administration loves to say, remain ominously "on the table."

    Meanwhile, negotiations to resolve the impasse with Iran over its pursuit of uranium-enrichment technology -- a possible first step to the manufacture of nuclear weapons -- continue at the United Nations in New York and in various European capitals. So far, the Iranians have refused to give any ground, claiming that their activities are intended for peaceful uses only and so are permitted under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), of which it is a signatory. The United States has made vague promises of improved relations if and when Iran terminates its nuclear program, but the full burden of making initial concessions falls on Tehran.

    Just this weekend, a conference in Egypt, called by Iraqi officials to explore regional approaches to stability in the region (with Iranian officials expected to be in attendance), was being viewed in Washington as yet another opportunity to pressure Tehran to be more submissive to the West's demands on a wide range of issues, including Iranian support for Shiite militias in Iraq.

    President Bush keeps insisting that he would like to see these "diplomatic" endeavors -- as he describes them -- succeed, but he has yet to bring up a single proposal or incentive that might offer any realistic prospect of eliciting a positive Iranian response.

    And so, knowing that his "diplomatic" efforts are almost certain to fail, Bush may simply be waiting for the day when he can announce to the American people that he has "tried everything"; that "his patience has run out"; and that he can "no longer risk the security of the American people" by "indulging in further fruitless negotiations," thereby allowing the Iranians "to proceed farther down the path of nuclear bomb-making," and so has taken the perilous but necessary step of ordering American forces to conduct air and missile strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. At that point, the 80 planes aboard the Nimitz -- and those on the Eisenhower and the Stennis as well -- will be on their way to targets in Iran, along with hundreds of TLAMs and a host of other weapons now being assembled in the Gulf.

    Michael T. Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and author of Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Dependency on Imported Petroleum.

    [This article first appeared on Tomdispatch.com, a weblog of the Nation Institute, which offers a steady flow of alternate sources, news, and opinion from Tom Engelhardt, long time editor in publishing, co-founder of the American Empire Project and author of Mission Unaccomplished (Nation Books), the first collection of Tomdispatch interviews.]

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    Bush Holds Iranian Officials as Bargaining Chips

    Bush Holds Iranian Officials as Bargaining Chips

    Gareth Porter, Electronic Iraq

    4 May 2007

    WASHINGTON (IPS) - When the Bush administration announced in January that it was targeting Iranian officials in Iraq, it justified the policy as necessary to protect U.S. troops because of their alleged involvement in attacks on U.S. forces.

    But recent developments have underlined the reality that those Iranian officials are serving as bargaining chips in the administration's effort to get Iran to use its influence with Iraqi Shiites to help stabilize the situation in Iraq.

    The administration's decision to hold on to five Iranians seized by U.S. troops in the Kurdish city of Irbil last January, rather than release them to reciprocate Iran's unconditional release in early April of 15 British sailors and marines captured in the Persian Gulf in March, raises the question of what calculations administration officials have been making in regard to their Iranian prisoners.

    The U.S. refusal to reciprocate the Iranian prisoner release was apparently the reason for Iran's refusal to allow its Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki to meet privately with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at the international meeting on Iraq in Egypt Thursday and Friday.

    The issue of whether to release the Iranians in light of Iran's release of the British captives was discussed at a meeting of top administration officials on Apr. 10, according to a Washington Post report by Robin Wright.

    Rice argued that the administration should release the five Iranian officials, because they were no longer useful. But Wright reported that an unnamed official representing Vice President Dick Cheney had insisted on holding them, arguing that it would convey to Iran that even more Iranian officials in Iraq might be seized, and that Rice had "gone along with the consensus" on the issue.

    The report of that discussion suggests that top administration officials are viewing their Iranian prisoners in the context of the broader diplomatic aims of the administration in regard to Iran. For the past few weeks, the Bush administration has been angling for what it calls a "dialogue" with Iran. That dialogue was supposed to have been kicked off with the Rice-Mottaki meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh and to be followed by a series of meetings later on.

    In a speech on Mar. 27, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates had previously signaled the administration's desire for such a dialogue in order to get Iran to play a more cooperative role in stabilizing Iraq.

    The origins of the administration's desire for such a dialogue, however, appear to lie in its determination last fall to use what it understood to be Iran's dominant influence over Shiite political-military leaders in Iraq to its advantage. In early October, the White House had decided simultaneously on two initiatives related to that aim.

    The first was to launch a high-profile campaign of allegations that Iran was sending armour-piercing explosives to Shiite militias in Iraq -- allegations for which administration officials had previously admitted they lacked actual evidence.

    The linkage between those charges against Iran and the administration's political aim of exploiting Iran's influence over Shiite leaders was revealed in an unusually candid speech by Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns to the Council on Foreign Relations last Oct. 11. Immediately after repeating previous administration claims that the Iranians were behind the use of sophisticated IED [improvised explosive device] technology by Shi'a groups against U.S. troops, Burns said, "[W]e expect that Iran, given its obvious interest in Iraq, and given the degree of influence that it has over parts of the Shi'a community in Iraq, is going to now decide to act differently."

    Burns thus strongly hinted that the Bush strategy was based on the assumption that Iran could coerce its Iraqi allies to do something they did not want to do and would use its political capital with Iraqi Shiite leaders because of pressure from the United States.

    The second decision made in early October, as revealed by Rice in an interview with the New York Times on Jan. 12, was to target for capture Iranian officials in Iraq whom the administration would claim were linked to attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq. That meant, in effect, targeting Iranians suspected of being a member of the "Quds Force" of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which the administration blamed for supporting the Shiite militias in Iraq.

    In subsequent public appearances, Rice refused to rule out a cross-border military operation to "disrupt activities that are endangering and killing our troops and that are destabilizing Iraq."

    The administration announced its targeting strategy on Jan. 10 just as it was seizing the five Iranian officials in Irbil. The same day, NBC's Tim Russert reported that Bush and his top advisers had told a small group of journalists the administration would not sit down with Iran until the United States had gained "leverage".

    The linkage of the five Iranian prisoners with a strategy to get Iran to use its influence with the Shiites, the refusal of the administration to release the five, despite Rice's conclusion that they were no longer "useful", and the administration's pursuit of a "dialogue" with Iran and Iraq all suggest that Bush administration hard-liners have regarded the Iranian prisoners from the beginning as hostages to be given up in return for Iranian cooperation on Iraq.

    The Iranian rebuff to the U.S. proposal for a Rice-Mottaki meeting makes it clear, however, that Iran will not discuss a deal involving its cooperation on Iraq for the return of its officials. In ruling out the meeting with Rice, Mottaki declared Wednesday, "For the moment the conditions do not exist for such a dialogue."

    Iran has always insisted that the United States must signal a change in its policy toward Iran before any direct diplomatic dialogue could begin. That would mean at least reciprocating Iranian gestures of goodwill, if not acknowledging that the United States is prepared to address legitimate Iranian concerns about U.S. policies.

    Rice's initial suggestion that the Iranians should be released seems to reflect an awareness on the part of realists within the administration that the United States cannot have a diplomatic dialogue with Iran while holding Iranian hostages as bargaining chips -- and threatening to take even more. But her cave-in to the hardline position suggests that Dick Cheney still has Bush's ear on Iran policy.

    All rights reserved, IPS - Inter Press Service (2007). Total or partial publication, retransmission or sale forbidden.

    They Wouldn’t Really Attack Iran, Would They?

    Apr 20, 2007

    by Paul Street; April 18, 2007

    Remember the old neoconservative half-joke that “sacking Baghdad is fine but real men go to Teheran?” We are moving into the time when many Washington watchers have thought it possible and even likely that George W. Bush and Dick Cheney would order an attack on Iran (1).

    They wouldn’t really do it, would they?

    God knows there are a large number of reasons for a rational White House NOT to attack. United States and global public opinion is opposed to a U.S. assault on Iran. So are European and other leading and allied governments, the U.S. intelligence community and much of the nation’s military leadership. According to a February 25th London Times report, “most senior [United States] commanders are prepared to resign if the White House orders a strike against Iran” (1.5).

    Key sections of the U.S. foreign policy establishment oppose attacking Iran. The Baker-Hamilton Commission’s Iraq Study Group advocated engaging Iran diplomatically to help de-escalate the mess in Iraq and the Middle East.

    Expressing concerns that the administration will manufacture false pretexts for attacking Iran, former National Security Advisor Zgbniew Bzrezinski recently told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that Bush’s “imperial hubris” is “undermining America’s global legitimacy,” “intensifying regional instability” and putting the U.S on track for a “quagmire lasting 20 years or more and eventually ranging across Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan” (2).

    United States troops are overstretched and have been badly bloodied in Iraq. The American Empire’s strung-out, battered and mostly working-class soldiers are increasingly skeptical about Bush’s military adventurism (3).


    As Samar Sepehri notes in the latest International Socialist Review, “Iraq is a glaring example for the U.S. (as Hezbollah was for Israel) that superior firepower and the best laid [military] plans are no guarantee of imperial success” (4).

    While “Iran cannot [militarily] defend itself against U.S. attack,” Noam Chomsky recently noted, “it can respond in other ways, among them by inciting ever more havoc in Iraq. “Some issue warnings that are more grave,” Chomsky adds, noting British military historian Corelli Barnett’s judgment that “an attack on Iran would effectively launch world war three” (5).

    According to ZNet writer Stephen Lendman, citing a CIA assessment, “if the U.S. attacks Iran, South Shia Iraq will light up like a candle and explode uncontrollably throughout the country...expanding the Iraq conflict to a regional one with [unpredictable] consequences that would not be good for U.S. interests. It will inflame the region,” spark “a tsunami of Shia rage” and “unite the Muslim world in fierce opposition to America,” Lendman says (6).

    Iran has signaled its readiness to strangle oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz – the crucial and narrow passageway between the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean – and thereby to damage the global economy if the U.S. and/or Israel attack its nuclear facilities.

    A military strike against Iran would be thoroughly illegal under international law and the U.S. Constitution. It would evoke horror and condemnation across the world, further tarnishing the United States’ fading “moral credentials” (Bzrezinski), especially if it employs (as it likely would) “low yield” nuclear missiles that would (as a senior U.S. intelligence official told Seymour Hersh) produce “mushroom clouds, radiation, mass casualties and contamination over years”(7).

    The administration’s key charges against Iran are without basis. There is little evidence to support U.S. claims that predominantly Shiite Iran has been sparking the Sunni-led Iraq “insurgency” and that Iran poses a reasonably imminent “nuclear danger.”

    Also lacking credibility are U.S. claims that Iraq seeks to eliminate Israel – a charge that ignores Iran foreign policy chief Ayatollah Ali Khameni’s repeated statements of support Israel’s continued existence alongside a separate Palestinian state.

    As John Pilger notes, “the ‘threat’ from Iran is entirely manufactured, aided and abetted by familiar, compliant media language that refers to Iran’s ‘nuclear ambitions’ just as the vocabulary of Saddam’s non-existent WMD arsenal became common usage”(8).

    Another public relations fiasco looms, perhaps, for those who would launch yet another mass-murderous assault on a major Muslim state without credible basis for threat claims concocted to justify the brazen violation of international law and civilized norms.

    A U.S. attack would likely unite the factions contesting for power inside Iran, to the detriment of the Bush administration’s declared mission of causing regime change there. That mission could be pursued without resort to massive air assault, through the intensified application of methods already being employed: economic and financial sanctions and the related promotion of ethnic, religious, factional and regional strife inside Iran.

    And yet, despite all this and more, we really can’t rule out the possibility of the feared U.S. attack sometime this or next year. Bush has been preparing the ground for such an assault by making repeated, high-profile references to the alleged Iran threat. As presented in his January 23rd State of the Union Address (SOUA), the supposed menace of Iran goes beyond alleged nuclear ambitions and support for the Iraqi resistance. It includes the threat of a rising “Shia crescent” led by Iran in alliance with Hezbollah, Hamas and the Syrian state. Bush raised this specter “despite the fact,” as Tom Englehardt notes, “that the Bush administration is officially at war with Sunni extremism in Iraq (and in the more general War on Terror)”(9).

    As Seymour Hersh shows in a recent New Yorker article titled “The Redirection,” the Bush administration’s Middle East policies has undergone a “sea change” as the U.S. seeks to enlist the region’s Arab Sunni people and regimes against Persian Iran and the danger of Shia dominance (10).

    The administration’s 2006 National Military Strategy claimed that “we may face no greater challenge from a single country than from Iran.” (11). The U.S. may have supported Israel’s invasion of Lebanon last July partly to destroy Iran-linked Hezbollah’s capacity to deter a U.S.-Israel assault on Iran.

    The U.S. “Surge” in Iraq is specifically targeting forces allied with Iran, seeking to reduce Iran’s ability to respond to a U.S. attack by sparking retaliation against the U.S in Iraq. As Sepehri notes, “although the surge in U.S. troops will do little to really secure Iraq (an idea which has been ridiculed even by the administration’s supporters), it is designed to pressure, fragment and break away parts of the forces allied with Iran, pulling away forces which can be acquiesced through military pressure, while isolating and destroying those who will not submit. The aim of this is to remove many of Iran’s options to respond to an attack including retaliation against the U.S. forces in Iraq” (12).

    U.S. Air Force Planning Groups have been “drawing up lists of targets” (Hersh) in Iran since at least early 2002. The Joint Chiefs of Staff have recently completed contingency plans that will permit Bush to bomb Iran on 24 hours notice.

    U.S. Special Ops and CIA teams have been placed in Iran, marking targets for future air assaults, studying the terrain, and fomenting rebellion among ethnic and religious minorities.

    The Pentagon has placed two full carrier groups in the Persian Gulf, giving the U.S. the capacity to sustain a month-long bombing and missile campaign against Iran. Even before the Stennis and Eisenhower groups arrived, the U.S. and the United Kingdom possessed a giant naval presence in the Gulf.

    Last December, the Pentagon replaced General John Abizaid with Admiral William Fallon as the head of Centcom, the command authority developed by Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan to “guard oil flows” from the Persian Gulf. Abizaid had supported the ISG’s recommendation of diplomatic engagement with Syria and Iraq. The new Centcom chief is an expert coordinator of the sort of combined air and sea operations that would be involved in a confrontation with Iran.

    The U.S. has been illegally sending unmanned aerial surveillance drones into Iranian air space. It recently invaded the Iranian consulate in northern Iraq and seized six Iranian nationals.

    The U.S. has been stockpiling oil reserves and has pressured its arch-reactionary oil-rich client state Saudi Arabia to increase petroleum production levels.

    Thousands of U.S. troops have been moved to the Iraq-Iran border. In February, the Los Angeles Times reported that U.S. Air Force and Navy planes were going to be used more aggressively along that border – the point being to provoke an Iranian response that could be used (ala the Gulf of Tonkin) as a pretext for a U.S. assault.

    The U.S. has installed “defensive” Patriot Missiles in Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the Arab Emirates. This is meant to defend these states against intermediate range (Shihab-3) ballistic missiles that Washington suspects Iran would launch in response to a U.S and/or Israeli attack.

    On February 11, the Washington Post reported that Dick Cheney’s new national security advisor John Hanna considers 2007 “the year of Iran.” A central player in the making of the Bush administration’s deceptive case for the invasion of Iraq, Hannah said that a U.S. assault on Iran was “a real possibility” this year (13).

    The Bush administration’s recent willingness to accommodate China by cutting a bargain with North Korea may in part reflect a desire to stop China from opposing a U.S. assault on Iran. As David Whitehouse notes, “the North Korea deal raises the stakes for Iran. China has been a potential obstacle to U.S. action against Iran, but progress over North Korea may make the Chinese more willing to accept a military strike…the favor the U.S. is extending to China over North Korea could be returned with Chinese acquiescence to the U.S. police role in the Middle East.”

    The Bush administration knows that neither of its two closest military rivals – Russia and China – will back Iran in an armed conflict with the superpower. While they will block a force resolution against Iran at the UN, they will stand clear once U.S. attack becomes imminent (14).

    Last December the Bush administration succeeded in persuading the United Nations Security Council to pass a resolution imposing economic sanctions on Iran for supposedly threatening international peace with nuclear activities. This has set the stage for Bush to demand that the Security Council sanction the use of force against Iran. When Security Council members Russia and China (inevitably) reject that demand, Bush may well (on the model of the 2002-2003 run to the invasion of Iraq) cite earlier resolutions to justify direct U.S. military action. “We’ve done all we can through the inadequate channels of international law and the UN,” Bush will claim (in essence) “but now the time has come for us to act” against an Evil State that the UN itself has identified as ‘a danger to world peace’” (14.5)

    The assault envisioned, it should be noted, is a “Shock and Awe” air attack, not a ground invasion or prolonged occupation that will cause mass U.S. casualties. The problem of GI burnout and casualties will not deter Washington from undertaking a month-long high-tech air war launched mainly from sea-born vessels. The White House is contemplating the use of nuclear weaponry, something that would involve an especially high ratio of “enemy” devastation to U.S. troop loss. As Alenjandro Nadal notes in La Jornada:

    “Many people think that an offensive by Washington would be foolish because the Americans can hardly cope with Iraq. How are they going to attack a country that is twice as big and has double the number of inhabitants? But...Washington’s objective is not to invade and occupy Iran. The central purpose is to eliminate it as an obstacle to controlling the resources of Central Asia and the Persian Gulf. And, to achieve that, it is not necessary to invade the country. It is enough to destroy its military capacity, aerial and naval, something that the armed forces of the United States and its few allies can achieve in some week of selective bombardment...In reply, Iran can unleash a nightmare for the Americans in Iraq. But the sacrifice of additional tens of soldiers in Baghdad is not something that is going to stop the...the Bush-Cheney duo...[and] the American people...will be faced with a fait accompli”(15).

    The fact that the world economy could be damaged by the disruption of oil flows from the Middle East is of little concern to Washington. U.S. policymakers are concerned first and foremost that the United States continues to bolster its world domination by controlling the strategically hyper-significant energy resources of the Middle East, not that not that they or the rest of the world enjoy unimpeded access to Middle Eastern oil. Iraq’s oil production has fallen from nearly 3 million barrels to about 1.5 billion barrels since the United States invaded – something that has led the major oil companies to jack up their prices (helping them garner record profits) even as increased Saudi production has helped make up the difference (16).

    The White House has made its contempt for the relevance of world and domestic opinion (and even much informed elite opinion) on numerous occasions, including the occupation of Iraq. Indifference to public opinion and law is hardly a “novel” stance on the part of U.S. policymakers, “but the statist reactionaries at the helm in Washington,” Chomsky notes, “have set new records in flaunting their credentials as international outlaws” (17).

    Asked about the opposition of the Congress and the American people to the U.S. “Surge” (escalation) in (and beyond) Iraq, Darth Cheney was blunt in his response: “it won’t stop us,” he said, leading one concerned U.S. citizen to write the following to the Editors of the New York Times: “What I want to know is, Who is ‘us’? If it's not the American electorate or the United States Congress, which was elected to represent American citizens, who is it? Or maybe the question should be, Who is this administration and what has it done with my country?"(18).

    It doesn’t help that the Democratic Party’s leadership and leading presidential candidates are hawkish on Iran – reflecting deeply shared doctrinal assumptions on the United States’ right and “responsibility” to exercise imperial “leadership” (global dominance) in and beyond Middle East (18.5) – even as they criticize the Bush administration’s sorry performance in Iraq. Or that dominant U.S. war and entertainment media has been willing to play much the same role regarding Iran that it played vis-à-vis Iraq in 2002 and 2003. It is dutifully relaying administration propaganda about the mythical Iran threat.

    And then there’s the vicious madness of boy-king George. Bush the Second combines profound mental mediocrity with sloppy, dry-drunk Protestant Fundamentalism, an advanced case of Narcissistic Personality Disorder and a sneering authoritarianism born of an especially vile and aristocratic upbringing. These toxic features and his life history blind him to his own mistakes and crimes and make him susceptible to the influence of powerful and deranged proto-fascists like Dick Cheney. They push him to respond to his Iraq fiasco by doubling down his bets on Iran - convinced that he can still “hit the jackpot” if he just keeps rambling and gambling in the oil-rich Middle East. They tell him he is endlessly free to transgress without consequence and insulate from the counsel of more rational elites within the imperial establishment. According to Bush’s own brother Jeb, as recounted in Ron Suskind’s book The One Percent Doctrine, “Dubya” appears to enjoy compelling other people to “knuckle under” and doesn’t really care about whether he’s right or wrong. He may actually find it more amusing to be wrong and still force everyone to follows his command.

    How much do rational warnings of possible or likely disaster matter to George “The Decider” Bush and his dark overlord Cheney? As their “untidy” (in the lovely description of Donald “Shit Happens” Rumsfeld) fiasco deepened in Iraq, it is worth remembering, the White House claimed that neither they nor anyone else had good reasons to anticipate the chaos that lay ahead when they invaded that shattered nation. This was completely false. Beyond technically irrelevant predictions of turmoil from within the Middle East and from the U.S. and global Left, numerous key establishment figures advanced serious “elite” warnings about possibly disastrous consequences after a quick military victory over a weak regime. The agents of advance warning (to name just some of the more prominent voices) included George Bush Senior’s National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft, retired Air Force Col. John Warden, Marine Corps consultant Frank Hoffman, National Defense University professor Daniel Kuehl, conservative Congressman Ike Skelton (the senior Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee), and the Committee on International Security Studies at the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (19).

    All of these and other voices within and beyond the foreign policy establishment issued relevant notes of caution and alarm regarding the difficulties inherent in illegally occupying Mesopotamia.

    None of if it was worth a pile of West Texas horseshit. The warnings went unheeded by an administration that clung to the notion of quick and easy “victory” (20).

    Four years later, to make things yet more dangerous, Bush, Cheney and others in the White House may be caught up in the “wounded predator” syndrome. Figuratively bloodied by an Iraqi quagmire so obvious and humiliating that even Bush can’t completely miss it, the injured monsters in the White House may be driven to act recklessly out of terrible desperation. As Gilbert Achcar noted in early 2006:

    “They want to control the energy resources of the region. The problem is what means can they use to achieve that goal? And...they are in real disarray about what to do. When you follow closely what they do on the ground, you have a sense of shifting policies; they are pragmatically trying to react to adversity but the fact is they have no general long-term strategy. The problem is that all this is truly worrying. The Iraqi vox populi is certainly right to be worried about U.S. plans, because the wounded beast could be truly dangerous” (21).

    The Iranian “vox populi” also has reasons to worry. As Chomsky noted last July, “Bush planners have created remarkable catastrophes for themselves in the Middle East. And it is conceivable that they might strike out in desperation, hitting the system with a sledgehammer to see if somehow the results will come out in their favor” (22).

    The administration’s desperation could be furthered by its awareness of the remarkable strategic stakes at play in the Middle East. Cheney and Bush have sparked events that could end up significantly damaging the United States’ position in the world system. Their incompetent and delusional actions have enabled a potential decisive separation of largely Shiite-inhabited Middle East oil lands from U.S. control, something that would cost the United States critical leverage over world-capitalist rivals and significantly accelerate its demotion to the position of a “second-rate world power.” Seen from the perspective of the American Empire Project, of course, there is nothing irrational about U.S. policymakers’ longstanding obsession with the control of Middle Eastern oil (23).

    Other depressing facts are that Bush and Cheney see the historical window closing on their probably cherished desire to attack Iran and could be motivated by their party’s deepening domestic political crisis to “Wag the Dog” (distract the enraged homeland populace with military actions overseas) on a large scale, looking for a domestic political twist on Chomsky’s “sledgehammer.”

    If Bush and Cheney can be convinced that bearing their nuclear tipped teeth is combining with other tactics – the fanning of Sunni-Shiite conflicts, external strangulation, and the cultivation of internal Iranian rebellion, etc. – to effectively show Iran and the Middle East who’s boss, then perhaps Washington will stand down from a full-blown assault. The Godfather doesn’t always have to actually kill; sometimes he can be convinced that the demonstration of his capacity for violence was sufficient to enforce proper obedience.

    Will they attack Iran sometime this or next year? If I were a betting man, I’d put my money on Washington standing down. It seems like too crazy a proposition even for Bush and Chenet at this point. But who knows? I didn’t think they’d invade Iraq at first and I’m not into prognostication. It’s not about the crystal ball.

    The facts that we have to work like Hell just to form educated guesses about what “our” “leaders” might do in our name – not to mention the name of “democracy” – and that the attack is a possibility are indications show the building of a serious anti-imperialist movement is long overdue inside the United States.

    It shouldn’t be like this. U.S. citizens should begin building a serious Left and anti-imperial movement aiming to replace dominant domestic structures of Empire and Inequality with egalitarian institutions of justice, equality and peace. Such “radical reconstruction of society” – Martin Luther King Jr.’s declared objective by 1966 (24) – is required, among other reasons, to eliminate the chance for demented war criminals and authoritarian militarists like Bush and Cheney to become structurally super-empowered predators in the first place.

    Veteran radical historian, journalist, and speaker Paul Street (paulstreet99@ yahoo.com) is a Left political commentator in Iowa City, IA. Street is the author of Empire and Inequality: America and the World Since 9/11 (Boulder, CO: Paradigm, 2004), Segregated Schools: Educational Apartheid in the Post-Civil Rights Era (New York, NY: Routledge, 2005), and Still Separate, Unequal: Race, Place, and Policy in Chicago (Chicago, 2005) and The Empire and Inequality Report. Street’s next book Racial Oppression in the Global Metropolis: A Living Black Chicago History (New York, 2007) will be released next June.



    NOTES

    1 John Pilger, “Iran: the War Begins,” ZNet Sustainer Commentary, February 3, 2007, available online at www.zmag.org/sustainers/content/2007-02/03pilger.cfm; Michael T. Klare, “Bush’s Future Iran War Speech,” Tomdispatch, reproduced on ZNet, February 26, 2007, available online at http://www. zmag.org/ content/ showarticle.cfm?itemid=12218.

    1.5 Michael Smith and Sarah Baxter, “U.S. Generals ‘Will Quit’ if Bush Orders Iran Attack,” London Times, 25 February 2007, available online at http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/ news/world/iraq/article1434540.ece).

    2. Bzrezinski is quoted in Stephen Lendman, “George Bush’s Sampson Option,” ZNet March 8, 2007, available online at http://www.zmag.org/content/ showarticle.cfm? SectionID=67&ItemID=12284).

    3. Paul Street, “ ‘ Without Question?’ On Growing Military Opposition to the Invasion of Iraq,” ZNet, January 11, 2007, available online at http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?ItemID=11825.

    4. Saman Sepehri, “The Pressure is On: The U.S. is Gearing Up for a Fight With Iran,” International Socialist Review, (March-April 2007), p. 12.

    5. Noam Chomsky, “A Predator Becomes More Dangerous When Wounded,” The Guardian, 9 March 2007, available online at www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/ story/0,,2030015,00.html.

    6. Lendman, “George Bush’s Samson Option.”

    7. Seymour Hersh, “Annals of National Security: The Iran Plans,” The New Yorker, April 17, 2006, available online at http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2006/04/ 17/060417fa_fact

    8. John Pilger, “Iran: the War Begins,” ZNet Sustainer Commentary, February 3, 2007, available online at www.zmag.org/sustainers/content/2007-02/03pilger.cfm.

    9. Tom Engelhardt, “The Seymour Hersh Mystery,” TomDispatch, March 13, 2006, available online at http://www.tomdispatch.com/index.mhtml?pid=174764

    10. Seymour Hersh, “The Redirection,” New Yorker, March 3, 2007, available online at http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/022507Z.shtml.

    11. Quotation in Lendman, “Bush’s Samson Option.”

    12. Sepehri, “The Pressure is On,” p.12.

    13. Karen De Young, “U.S. Keeps Pressure on Iran,” Washington Post, 11 February 2007, p. A18.

    14. David Whitehouse, “Desperate for a Deal,” International Socialist Review (March-April 2007), p.10; Sepehri, “The Pressure is On.” “The Chinese know the U.S. is in a Middle East quagmire,” Whitehouse adds, “and they might not mind handing Bush a shovel to dig even deeper.”

    14.5 Klare, “Bush’s Future Iran War Speech.”

    15. Alenjandro Nadal, “Blitzkrieg Against Iran: Bush and Cheney’s Twisted Logic,” La Jornada, Mexico, April 4, 2007.

    16. Noam Chomsky and Gilbert Achcar, Perilous Power: The Middle East and U.S. Foreign Policy (Boulder, CO: Paradigm, 2006], p.58; Mathew Wald, “War and Cheap Oil: A Second Look,” New York Times, 7 January 2007, sec. 4, p. 2.

    17. Chomsky and Achcar, Perilous Power, p. 232.

    18. Stephanie Nicholas, Letter to the Editor of the New York Times, January 27, 2007.

    18.5 On shared doctrinal assumptions, see Tony Smith’s candid commentary, “It’s Uphill for the Democrats: They Need a Global Strategy, Not Just Tactics for Iraq,” Washington Post Sunday, March 11, 2007, p. B1, available online at www.washingtonpost.com/wp- dyn/content/article/2007/03/09/AR2007030901884_pf.html

    19. Paul Street, Empire and Inequality: America and the World Since 9/11 (Boulder, CO: Paradigm, 2004), pp. 57-66.

    20. Thomas E. Ricks, Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq (New York, 2006), p. 59.

    21. Chomsky and Achcar, Perilous Power, p. 114.

    22. Chomsky and Achcar, Perilous Power, pp. 230-231. See also Chomsky, “A Predator Becomes More Dangerous When Wounded.” The potential benefits of inflicting chaos through “sledgehammer” assault are suggested by the ironic fact that, as Sepehri notes, “the unfolding disaster in Iraq” has “provided the means for the U.S., Israel and the Arab regimes to combat Iran’s political influence through Sunni/Shiite divisions and sectarianism. While the sectarian violence in Iraq has undermined the U.S. ability to bring security or claim any control over the situation in Iraq,” Sepehri observes, “it has also provided the tool to break apart any united political opposition to the U.S. (and Israel).” See Sepehri, “The Pressure is On,” p. 12.

    23. Chomsky and Achcar, Perilous Power, pp. 25-26, 53-55, 57-58, 114, 231.

    24. Paul Street, “ ‘ Until We Get a New Social Order:’ Reflections on the Early Radicalism of Martin Luther King, Jr.” ZNet (January 16, 2007), available online at http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?ItemID=11871; Paul Street, “The Pale Reflection: Barack Obama, Martin Luther King Jr. and the Meaning of the Black Revolution,” Black Agenda Report (March 21, 2007), available online at http://www.blackagendareport.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id= 149&Itemid=34.

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    No One's Drinking Bush's Kool-Aid on Iran

    By Robert Dreyfuss, TomPaine.com
    Posted on February 15, 2007, Printed on April 19, 2007


    It was, President Bush must have been thinking, a heck of a lot easier five years ago. Back in 2002, the president had a smoothly running lie factory humming along in the Pentagon, producing reams of fake intelligence about Iraq, led by Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Doug Feith and his Office of Special Plans. Back then, he had a tightly knit cabal of neoconservatives, led by I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, based in Vice President Dick Cheney's office, to carry out a coordinated effort to distribute the lies to the media. And he had a chorus of yes-men in the Republican-controlled Congress ready to echo the party line.

    In 2007, Bush stands nearly alone, and he never looked lonelier than during a bumbling, awkward news conference on the Iraq-Iran tangle Wednesday.

    Feith is long gone, and last week his lie factory was exposed by the Pentagon's own inspector general, who told Congress that Feith had pretty much made up everything that his rogue intelligence unit manufactured. Libby is long gone, apparently about to be sentenced to jail for lying about Cheney's frantic effort to cover up the lie factory's work. And the congressional echo chamber is gone: In six weeks, the Democrats have held more than four dozen hearings to investigate the White House's catastrophic Middle East policy, and even Hillary Clinton is warning that Bush had better keep his hands off Iran, saying: "It would be a mistake of historical proportions if the administration thought that the 2002 resolution authorizing force against Iraq was a blank check for the use of force against Iran."

    Without his Orwellian apparatus behind him, the president spent most of his hour-long news conference yesterday shrugging and smirking, jutting his jaw out with false bravado, joshing inappropriately with reporters asking deadly serious questions and stumbling over his words. It was painful to listen to him trying to justify the nonsensical claims that Iran and its paramilitary "Quds Force" are somehow responsible for the chaos in Iraq:

    What we do know is that the Quds force was instrumental in providing these deadly IEDs to networks inside of Iraq. We know that. And we also know that the Quds force is a part of the Iranian government. That's a known. What we don't know is whether or not the head leaders of Iran ordered the Quds force to do what they did.

    Pressed about what the "head leaders" are doing, he went on:

    Either they knew or didn't know, and what matters is, is that they're there. What's worse, that the government knew or that the government didn't know? ... What's worse, them ordering it and it happening, or them not ordering it and it happening?

    If that makes no sense to you, well, that's because the whole thing makes no sense. It's a farcical replay of Iraq 2002, when the White House demonized Saddam Hussein with fake intelligence, turning him into a menacing al-Qaida backer armed with weapons of mass destruction. This time, however, the lie factory has been dismantled. All by himself, the president is trying to turn Iran into a scary, al-Qaida-allied, nuke-wielding menace. But he's not fooling anyone. The potent "war president" of 2002-2003 is now an incoherent, mewling Wizard of Oz-like figure, and people are paying attention to the man behind the curtain.

    Unlike 2002, when the White House fired salvo after salvo of fake intelligence about Iraq, today it can't even stage its lies properly. Like the incompetents who couldn't organize a two-car funeral, the remaining Iran war hawks in the administration held a briefing in Baghdad on Sunday to present alleged evidence that Iran is masterminding the insurgency in Iraq. But it was a comedy of errors that convinced no one. Twice, at least, the administration had earlier postponed or canceled the much-promoted event, designed to reveal the supposed secrets behind Iran's actions in Iraq. When it was finally held, it was not in Washington, but in Baghdad, with not a single White House official, no U.S. diplomat, no State Department official, no CIA official and no one from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Instead, a couple of anonymous military officers held a background-only briefing, barring cameras and tape recorders, to present some blurry photographs of bomb-looking things -- and not a shred of evidence of Iranian government involvement.

    It was as if Adlai Stevenson had gotten up at the United Nations during the missile crisis in Cuba and, rather than showing detailed U-2 photographs of missile emplacements, had simply said, "Ladies and gentleman, some Cuban guy we talked to said the Russians are putting missiles in Cuba."

    According to The Washington Times, the effort to blame Iran was directly torpedoed by the U.S. intelligence community, through the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The ODNI, said the Times, "sought to play down the intelligence on Iranian involvement, fearing that the report will be used as a basis to launch an attack on Iran." Many earlier reports noted that both the State Department and the U.S. intelligence community were strongly opposed to any attempt to demonize Iran. There's nothing like a bureaucracy scorned to conduct passive-aggressive sabotage of misguided policies, and in this case the bureaucracy apparently succeeded. The dog-and-pony show on Iranian meddling in Iraq not only didn't scare anyone, it caused guffaws of laughter and ridicule.

    And then there was the hilarious presidential press conference yesterday, to top it off.

    There is, of course, no basis for arguing that the civil war in Iraq is caused by Iran. And there is no basis -- "not supported by underlying intelligence," as the Pentagon I.G. said about Doug Feith's 2002 work -- to argue that Iran is responsible for a significant part of American deaths in Iraq. Nearly all of the U.S. casualties in Iraq are caused by the secular-Baathist Sunni-led resistance and religious Sunni extremists fighting the occupation, and none of the forces allied with the resistance have ties to Iran. Even the anonymous briefers at the dog-and-camel show in Baghdad admitted that Iran is helping the Shiite militias, not the Sunnis; in other words, Iran is helping the self-same militias that are being trained and armed by the United States.

    And the spurious claim that 170 Americans have died in attacks using Iranian-supplied super-IED's since 2004 can only mean one thing: that the Pentagon is counting the numbers of U.S. soldiers and Marines who died in April and August, 2004. That was when the United States waged two mini-wars against Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. It was the only time in the past four years when the United States suffered significant casualties fighting the Shiites -- though the administration presented zero evidence that Sadr's Mahdi Army gets weapons from Iran, or needs to. But if they're counting as far back as 2004 -- and, according to the Pentagon, the super-IED's started showing up in 2004 -- then the whole issue is absurd, since what happened three years ago has little or no relevance to current conditions.

    Those prone to believe, along with the president, that Iran is fomenting the violence in Iraq have already drunk deep of the neocon Kool-Aid. The rest of us can only shake our heads in wonder that the president thinks he can get away with this.

    Robert Dreyfuss is the author of "Devil's Game: How the United States Helped Unleash Fundamentalist Islam" (Henry Holt/Metropolitan Books).
    © 2007 Independent Media Institute. All rights reserved.
    View this story online at: http://www.alternet.org/story/48083/

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